George Osborne's Child Benefit Cut and its Timing

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, we are told, considers himself a political strategist. Why then announce a cut to universal child benefit at your own party conference, which will bear most heavily on the income group which provides your party's core support yet will only come into effect some three years into the future?

The first assumption I make is that Osborne believes that the Coalition will (note; not 'can' but 'will') survive the full five years in power. Interestingly Parliament will almost certainly at some stage need to have its powers further neutered if such is to be guaranteed. A General Election in May 2013, a probable date in my earlier calculations of likliehoods would now appear totally out of the question coming one month after the money is actually cut at the start of the financial year.

A rational and consistent approach to reducing universality by cutting heating allowances and free bus passes for the over 65s would have been consistent and logical, dispelling the impression that there is some form of political process in play.

The greatest mystery arise from the deferment of the cut to 2013. Surely any unpopular move such as this is best brought in as far from the next election as possible, therefore as soon as possible. As austerity and the huge government borrowings of one pound in every four being spent today is the ostensible reason then logically the cut should be effective at the latest at the start of the next tax year or lumped in with any other necessary fiscal changes coming from the spending cuts to be announced later this month.

There is no discernible logic behind the change or the timing of its announcement.

What I believe we have seen is a drawing of the line at a level of income where a future combined political party will look for support at the next general election when the coalition will plan to run only joint candidates. Cameron and Osborne will thus have achieved that of which Blair could only dream in his long gone Labour Party Conference speech, the destruction of Conservatism.

Cameron and Osborne are now betting that their Tory supportes are too dense to perceive this reality, a calculation in which they are probably correct.

This post will also appear on the blog Teetering Tories.